{"id":296,"date":"2026-03-23T20:49:29","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T20:49:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.go-deck.com\/tw\/estimating-velocity-predicting-delivery-agile-projects\/"},"modified":"2026-03-23T20:49:29","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T20:49:29","slug":"estimating-velocity-predicting-delivery-agile-projects","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.go-deck.com\/tw\/estimating-velocity-predicting-delivery-agile-projects\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4f30\u7b97\u901f\u5ea6\uff1a\u9810\u6e2c\u654f\u6377\u5c08\u6848\u7684\u4ea4\u4ed8"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img alt=\"Hand-drawn infographic summarizing Agile velocity estimation: definition, calculation steps, velocity vs capacity, factors affecting velocity, delivery prediction formula, common pitfalls, and team maturity stages for sprint planning and release forecasting\" decoding=\"async\" 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vs. \u5bb9\u91cf\uff1a\u7406\u89e3\u5169\u8005\u7684\u5dee\u7570 \u2696\ufe0f<\/h2>\n<p>\u96d6\u7136\u901f\u5ea6\u8861\u91cf\u7684\u662f\u7522\u51fa\uff0c\u4f46\u5bb9\u91cf\u8861\u91cf\u7684\u662f\u53ef\u7528\u6027\u3002\u6df7\u6dc6\u5169\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u904e\u5ea6\u627f\u8afe\u3002\u5bb9\u91cf\u662f\u6307\u8003\u616e\u5047\u671f\u3001\u6703\u8b70\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u7fa9\u52d9\u5f8c\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u65bc\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u7e3d\u6642\u9593\u3002<\/p>\n<table>\n<tr>\n<th>\u9762\u5411<\/th>\n<th>\u901f\u5ea6<\/th>\n<th>\u5bb9\u91cf<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>\u5b9a\u7fa9<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>\u885d\u523a\u671f\u9593\u5be6\u969b\u5b8c\u6210\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/td>\n<td>\u885d\u523a\u671f\u9593\u53ef\u7528\u65bc\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u6642\u9593\u3002<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>\u55ae\u4f4d<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>\u6545\u4e8b\u9ede\u6578<\/td>\n<td>\u5c0f\u6642\u6216\u5929\u6578<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>\u76ee\u7684<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>\u6839\u64da\u6b77\u53f2\u6578\u64da\u9810\u6e2c\u672a\u4f86\u7522\u51fa\u3002<\/td>\n<td>\u898f\u5283\u5373\u6642\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u8ca0\u8377\u3002<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>\u7a69\u5b9a\u6027<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>\u96a8\u8457\u6642\u9593\u9010\u6f38\u7a69\u5b9a\u3002<\/td>\n<td>\u6839\u64da\u6392\u7a0b\u6bcf\u9031\u885d\u523a\u90fd\u6703\u8b8a\u52d5\u3002<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>\u898f\u5283\u885d\u523a\u6642\uff0c\u61c9\u5148\u5f9e\u5bb9\u91cf\u8457\u624b\uff0c\u4ee5\u78ba\u4fdd\u6bcf\u4f4d\u6210\u54e1\u90fd\u53ef\u6295\u5165\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u63a5\u8457\uff0c\u5c07\u6b64\u53ef\u7528\u6027\u8207\u6b77\u53f2\u901f\u5ea6\u5c0d\u7167\uff0c\u78ba\u4fdd\u5718\u968a\u4e0d\u6703\u627f\u8afe\u8d85\u51fa\u5176\u8655\u7406\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u9ede\u6578\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u5f71\u97ff\u901f\u5ea6\u7684\u56e0\u7d20 \ud83d\udcc9<\/h2>\n<p>\u901f\u5ea6\u4e26\u975e\u6046\u5b9a\u4e0d\u8b8a\u3002\u5b83\u6703\u56e0\u591a\u7a2e\u5167\u90e8\u8207\u5916\u90e8\u56e0\u7d20\u800c\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002\u7406\u89e3\u9019\u4e9b\u8b8a\u6578\u6709\u52a9\u65bc\u6e96\u78ba\u8abf\u6574\u9810\u6e2c\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u5718\u968a\u7d44\u6210\uff1a<\/strong> \u5982\u679c\u95dc\u9375\u958b\u767c\u4eba\u54e1\u96e2\u8077\u6216\u65b0\u6210\u54e1\u52a0\u5165\uff0c\u901f\u5ea6\u5c07\u6703\u6539\u8b8a\u3002\u65b0\u6210\u54e1\u9700\u8981\u6642\u9593\u9069\u61c9\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u521d\u671f\u7522\u51fa\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u6280\u8853\u50b5\u52d9\uff1a<\/strong> \u9ad8\u6280\u8853\u50b5\u52d9\u6703\u62d6\u6162\u958b\u767c\u9032\u5ea6\u3002\u91cd\u69cb\u5de5\u4f5c\u6703\u6d88\u8017\u539f\u672c\u53ef\u7528\u65bc\u958b\u767c\u65b0\u529f\u80fd\u7684\u5bb9\u91cf\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u5916\u90e8\u4f9d\u8cf4\uff1a<\/strong> \u7b49\u5f85\u7b2c\u4e09\u65b9 API \u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u5718\u968a\u6703\u9020\u6210\u74f6\u9838\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u5be6\u969b\u901f\u5ea6\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u5207\u63db\u5de5\u4f5c\u60c5\u5883\uff1a<\/strong> \u983b\u7e41\u7684\u4e2d\u65b7\u548c\u591a\u5de5\u8655\u7406\u6703\u964d\u4f4e\u5c08\u6ce8\u529b\uff0c\u4e26\u6e1b\u7de9\u5b8c\u6210\u901f\u5ea6\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u7bc4\u570d\u8b8a\u66f4\uff1a<\/strong> \u5728 Sprint \u4e2d\u9593\u65b0\u589e\u9700\u6c42\u6703\u7834\u58de\u6d41\u7a0b\uff0c\u4e26\u964d\u4f4e\u6700\u7d42\u8a08\u6578\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>\u9810\u6e2c\u4ea4\u4ed8\u65e5\u671f \ud83d\uddd3\ufe0f<\/h2>\n<p>\u4e00\u65e6\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u4f86\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u6703\u6210\u70ba\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u9019\u5c0d\u65bc\u767c\u884c\u898f\u5283\u5c24\u5176\u6709\u7528\u3002\u8a72\u904e\u7a0b\u5305\u62ec\u5c07\u5269\u9918\u5de5\u4f5c\u9664\u4ee5\u5e73\u5747\u901f\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u516c\u5f0f<\/h3>\n<p>\u4f30\u7b97\u6240\u9700 Sprint \u6578\u91cf\uff1a<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>\u8b58\u5225\u5269\u9918\u5de5\u4f5c\uff1a<\/strong> \u8a08\u7b97\u7522\u54c1\u5f85\u8fa6\u4e8b\u9805\u6e05\u55ae\u4e2d\u6240\u6709\u9805\u76ee\u9ede\u6578\u7684\u7e3d\u548c\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u78ba\u5b9a\u5e73\u5747\u901f\u5ea6\uff1a<\/strong> \u4f7f\u7528\u904e\u53bb\u4e09\u5230\u4e94\u500b Sprint \u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u8a08\u7b97 Sprint \u6578\u91cf\uff1a<\/strong> \u5c07\u5269\u9918\u5de5\u4f5c\u9664\u4ee5\u5e73\u5747\u901f\u5ea6\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong>\u7bc4\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5269\u9918\u7e3d\u9ede\u6578\uff1a100<\/li>\n<li>\u5e73\u5747\u901f\u5ea6\uff1a\u6bcf Sprint 20 \u9ede<\/li>\n<li>\u9810\u4f30 Sprint \u6578\u91cf\uff1a100 \u00f7 20 = 5 \u500b Sprint<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6b64\u8a08\u7b97\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u500b\u57fa\u6e96\u3002\u61c9\u6839\u64da\u5df2\u77e5\u98a8\u96aa\u9032\u884c\u8abf\u6574\u3002\u82e5\u5b58\u5728\u91cd\u5927\u4f9d\u8cf4\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u6210\uff0c\u61c9\u5728\u9810\u4f30\u4e2d\u52a0\u5165\u7de9\u885d\u6642\u9593\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u901f\u5ea6\u8ffd\u8e64\u4e2d\u7684\u5e38\u898b\u9677\u9631 \ud83d\udeab<\/h2>\n<p>\u5718\u968a\u7d93\u5e38\u8aa4\u7528\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u6578\u64da\u5931\u6548\u3002\u4e86\u89e3\u9019\u4e9b\u9677\u9631\u6709\u52a9\u65bc\u7dad\u6301\u6578\u64da\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u865b\u5831\u4f30\u8a08\uff1a<\/strong> \u8a87\u5927\u6545\u4e8b\u9ede\u6578\uff0c\u4f7f\u901f\u5ea6\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u9019\u6703\u9020\u6210\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u8a08\u7b97\u672a\u5b8c\u6210\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff1a<\/strong> \u5c07\u672a\u5b8c\u6210\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u7d0d\u5165\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u6578\u5b57\u3002\u9019\u6703\u626d\u66f2\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u898f\u5283\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u5ffd\u7565\u5b8c\u6210\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff1a<\/strong> \u5728\u672a\u6eff\u8db3\u6240\u6709\u6a19\u6e96\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u5c07\u9805\u76ee\u6a19\u8a18\u70ba\u5b8c\u6210\u3002\u9019\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u6280\u8853\u8ca0\u50b5\u7d2f\u7a4d\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u6bd4\u8f03\u5718\u968a\uff1a<\/strong> \u4f7f\u7528\u901f\u5ea6\u4f86\u6392\u540d\u5718\u968a\u3002\u9019\u6703\u9f13\u52f5\u64cd\u5f04\u7cfb\u7d71\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u8aa0\u5be6\u5831\u544a\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u8b8a\u66f4\u4f30\u7b97\u6a19\u6e96\uff1a<\/strong>\u5f9e\u6545\u4e8b\u9ede\u8f49\u70ba\u5c0f\u6642\uff0c\u537b\u672a\u91cd\u65b0\u6821\u6e96\u3002\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u81f3\u95dc\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>\u8abf\u6574\u8b8a\u7570\u8207\u98a8\u96aa \ud83d\udee1\ufe0f<\/h2>\n<p>\u5373\u4f7f\u6709\u6b77\u53f2\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4f9d\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u654f\u6377\u898f\u5283\u5fc5\u9808\u8003\u616e\u8b8a\u7570\u6027\u3002\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u61c9\u5305\u542b\u5bb9\u932f\u7a7a\u9593\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5340\u9593<\/h3>\n<p>\u4e0d\u8981\u53ea\u63d0\u51fa\u55ae\u4e00\u65e5\u671f\uff0c\u61c9\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u500b\u7bc4\u570d\u3002\u82e5\u8a08\u7b97\u986f\u793a\u9700\u8981\u4e94\u500b\u885d\u523a\uff0c\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u63d0\u51fa\u56db\u5230\u516d\u500b\u885d\u523a\u3002\u6b64\u7bc4\u570d\u627f\u8a8d\u5718\u968a\u8868\u73fe\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u7de9\u885d\u5340\u914d\u7f6e<\/h3>\n<p>\u70ba\u672a\u9810\u671f\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u6263\u9664\u90e8\u5206\u5bb9\u91cf\u3002\u5e38\u898b\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u4fdd\u7559\u885d\u523a\u4e2d20%\u7684\u6642\u9593\u7528\u65bc\u9664\u932f\u3001\u652f\u63f4\u5de5\u55ae\u6216\u610f\u5916\u8b8a\u66f4\u3002\u9019\u53ef\u78ba\u4fdd\u5718\u968a\u4e0d\u6703\u904e\u5ea6\u627f\u8afe\u65b0\u529f\u80fd\u3002<\/p>\n<table>\n<tr>\n<th>\u60c5\u5883<\/th>\n<th>\u8abf\u6574<\/th>\n<th>\u5c0d\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u5f71\u97ff<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u65b0\u5718\u968a\u6210\u54e1<\/td>\n<td>\u5c07\u901f\u5ea6\u964d\u4f4e30%<\/td>\n<td>\u589e\u52a0\u885d\u523a\u6b21\u6578<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u9ad8\u6280\u8853\u8ca0\u50b5<\/td>\n<td>\u5c07\u901f\u5ea6\u964d\u4f4e20%<\/td>\n<td>\u589e\u52a0\u885d\u523a\u6b21\u6578<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u8907\u96dc\u9818\u57df<\/td>\n<td>\u5c07\u901f\u5ea6\u964d\u4f4e15%<\/td>\n<td>\u589e\u52a0\u885d\u523a\u6b21\u6578<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u7a69\u5b9a\u74b0\u5883<\/td>\n<td>\u7dad\u6301\u73fe\u6709\u901f\u5ea6<\/td>\n<td>\u6a19\u6e96\u9810\u6e2c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<h2>\u5718\u968a\u52d5\u614b\u8207\u6210\u719f\u5ea6 \ud83e\udd1d<\/h2>\n<p>\u96a8\u8457\u5718\u968a\u9010\u6f38\u6210\u719f\uff0c\u901f\u5ea6\u4e5f\u6703\u6f14\u8b8a\u3002\u5c08\u6848\u521d\u671f\uff0c\u5718\u968a\u56e0\u5b78\u7fd2\u7522\u54c1\u8207\u5efa\u7acb\u5de5\u4f5c\u6d41\u7a0b\uff0c\u901f\u5ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u8f03\u4f4e\u3002\u9019\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u5f62\u6210\u8207\u885d\u7a81\u968e\u6bb5\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u5f62\u6210\uff1a<\/strong>\u901f\u5ea6\u4f4e\u3002\u91cd\u9ede\u5728\u5efa\u7acb\u6d41\u7a0b\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u885d\u7a81\uff1a<\/strong>\u901f\u5ea6\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002\u885d\u7a81\u8207\u8abf\u6574\u6642\u6709\u767c\u751f\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u898f\u7bc4\uff1a<\/strong> \u901f\u5ea6\u7a69\u5b9a\u4e0b\u4f86\u3002\u5718\u968a\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u7bc0\u594f\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong> \u57f7\u884c\u4e2d\uff1a<\/strong> \u9ad8\u4e14\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u3002\u5718\u968a\u6548\u7387\u9ad8\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> \u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u4e0d\u61c9\u671f\u671b\u901f\u5ea6\u7acb\u5373\u9054\u5230\u9802\u5cf0\u3002\u521d\u671f\u968e\u6bb5\u9700\u8981\u8010\u5fc3\u3002\u904e\u65e9\u8ffd\u6c42\u9ad8\u6578\u503c\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u640d\u5bb3\u54c1\u8cea\u8207\u5718\u968a\u51dd\u805a\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<h2> \u6578\u64da\u5b8c\u6574\u6027\u8207\u900f\u660e\u5ea6 \ud83d\udd0d<\/h2>\n<p> \u82e5\u901f\u5ea6\u8981\u5177\u5099\u5be6\u7528\u6027\uff0c\u6578\u64da\u5fc5\u9808\u6e96\u78ba\u3002\u900f\u660e\u5ea6\u81f3\u95dc\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u6bcf\u4f4d\u5718\u968a\u6210\u54e1\u90fd\u61c9\u4e86\u89e3\u9ede\u6578\u5982\u4f55\u5206\u914d\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u901f\u5ea6\u5982\u4f55\u8a08\u7b97\u3002<\/p>\n<p> 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